Summer 2010 Russian smog costs.

Russia will face negative weather cataclysmconsequences in the 2nd half 2010, but its validation can be performed when 3rd quarter statistics are published, experts say. They expect economics growth delay in the 3rd quarter whicj was majorly caused by drought and agricultural problems.

 

As the leading economists think, natural anomalies cannot lead to global changes in industrial manufacturing. Russia was and is still oriented to develop mineral resources branches. Besides, August is the favorite vacation month and a traditional period for economy recession.

 

According to analytics opinion, weather cataclysms will cost the RF economy approximately 1% of total internal production. In the 2nd half of 2010 TIP won’t be lower than in the 1st half and will make about 4%. The annual results will remain as predicted.

 

While evaluating drought and heat influence upon prices index growth analytics came up to the same conclusion. Some of them consider that the former inflation prognosis will remain at the level of 8.1%. The drought will insignificantly influence the prices growth - the government will regulate them, economists assume.

 

At the same time they note food prices growth during the first autumn months in large supermarkets that makes 15-20%. It can be explained by speculative factor force, because real production costs remain unchanged. World market food prices increase will certainly find its reflection upon Russian inflation. There may be super reaction when goods prices will overtake raw materials and forage prices 1.5-2 times.

 

If we face such an abnormal summer next year (and not in RF only), the government will be unable to constrain prices growth for more than 10%.